Price Drop −$10K
17
$329,900
10907 Stockade Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,100 sqft$300/ft²
House23,087 sqft lot
Vickie Watts · Williams Realty, LLC
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Lake Wilderness, VA Housing Market
Buyer's market+5.4% YoY
Redfin, through May 2026 · No longer updatingFreddie Mac via FRED, September 2026 · Refreshes weekly
The last median sale price Redfin published was $390,000, +5.4% year over year (through May 2026). With 13.0 months of supply and homes going under contract in about 32 days, Lake Wilderness is a buyer's market. At today's 7.03% 30-year fixed rate, 20% down on a $390,000 home is about $2,082/mo in principal and interest.
Key numbers for Lake Wilderness, VA
Median sale price
$390,000
+5.4% year over year
Redfin, through May 2026
Days on market
32
Average pace
Redfin, through May 2026
Active listings
13
13.0 months of supply
Redfin, through May 2026
30-yr fixed rate
7.03%
Freddie Mac weekly average
Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026
Median household income
$115,781
Home costs 3.4x income
U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Sale-to-list ratio
100.0%
Selling above asking
Redfin, through May 2026
Zillow figures refresh monthly. Redfin figures are through May 2026 — Redfin stopped publishing its public market trackers in June 2026, so those numbers are final, not current. Mortgage rates come from Freddie Mac via FRED and update weekly.
Is Lake Wilderness a buyer's or seller's market?
Buyer's market13.0 months of supply32 days on market100.0% of asking
Lake Wilderness, VA is a buyer's market, based on 13.0 months of supply and homes selling in about 32 days. Above 7 months of supply is a glut: inventory is well ahead of the sales pace, and buyers can take time to inspect, compare, and negotiate concessions.
Inputs are Redfin's final published period (May 2026). How we classify markets · Where the data comes from
What does the Lake Wilderness housing market data show?
Every row below is Redfin's final published month for Lake Wilderness, VA. Redfin, through May 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $390,000 |
| Median list price | $529,950 |
| Year-over-year price change | +5.4% |
| Median price per sq ft | $323/sq ft |
| Median days on market | 32 days |
| Active inventory | 13 listings |
| Months of supply | 13.0 months |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 100.0% |
| Homes sold (that month) | 1 |
| New listings (that month) | 10 |
| Listings with a price cut | 30.8% |
| Market condition | Buyer's market |
How to read these numbers
- Median sale price
- Half the homes that closed sold for more than this, half for less. It moves with what kind of home sold that month, so a quiet month with two big sales can swing it. Redfin's figure for Lake Wilderness is frozen at May 2026.
- Typical home value (ZHVI)
- Zillow's estimate of what a mid-market home in Lake Wilderness is worth right now, whether or not it sold. It is smoother than the median sale price and it still refreshes monthly, which is why this page leads with it.
- Months of supply
- How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under 3 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers, and 3 to 6 is the balanced band.
- Days on market
- Median time from listing to accepted offer. Short means you should have financing ready before you tour; long means there is room to negotiate on price and repairs.
- Sale-to-list ratio
- Sale price divided by the last asking price. Above 100% means bidding above asking is normal here; below 100% means the typical buyer got a discount.
- Price per square foot
- The size-adjusted price. Use it to compare a 1,400 sq ft house to a 2,600 sq ft house, not to value your own home — lot, condition and age move it a lot.
- Listings with a price cut
- Share of active listings that dropped their asking price in the month. A high share is the earliest visible sign that sellers are ahead of what buyers will pay.
- Typical asking rent (ZORI)
- Zillow's repeat-rent index for asking rents on new leases. Paired with the home value it gives the price-to-rent ratio in the rent-vs-buy section below.
How have Lake Wilderness home prices moved?
Over the last three years the median sale price in Lake Wilderness, VA rose 5.4%, from $370,000 to $390,000. 30.8% of Lake Wilderness listings cut their asking price in the final Redfin month — a high share, and the clearest sign that list prices were running ahead of what buyers would pay. For prices to fall meaningfully from here, supply would have to keep building past 13.0 months while the sale-to-list ratio slips below its current 100.0%. Watch those two together — they move before the median does.
Redfin, through May 2026 — the chart ends at Redfin's final published month.
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What does it cost to buy a home in Lake Wilderness?
Priced off the median sale price of $390,000 at the current 7.03% 30-year fixed rate. These are principal and interest only — property taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance are on top, and they vary enough by property that we will not guess them for you.
| Down payment | Cash at close | Loan amount | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $78,000 | $312,000 | $2,082/mo |
| 5% | $19,500 | $370,500 | $2,472/mo |
Redfin, through May 2026 for the price · Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026 for the rate
What income do you need?
Lenders generally want housing costs under 28% of gross income. On the 20%-down payment of $2,082, that implies roughly $89,230 a year before you add taxes and insurance. The median household in Lake Wilderness earns $115,781, about $26,551 more than that threshold — the typical local household clears the payment on a typical local home with 20% down. That puts the price-to-income ratio at 3.4x — close to the historical 3x norm, which is unusual in 2026.
Run it with your own numbers: affordability calculator · mortgage calculator
Buying in Lake Wilderness in the next 12 months?
Tell us your timeline. We send the Lake Wilderness market brief: the price ranges that actually clear, how long homes sit, and what to fix on your credit before you apply.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lake Wilderness?
Zillow does not publish a rent index (ZORI) for Lake Wilderness, VA, so we cannot compute a price-to-rent ratio here without borrowing a nearby market's rents and calling them local — which we will not do. The rent vs. buy calculator works with a rent figure you supply.
Is inventory rising or falling in Lake Wilderness?
Active listings in Lake Wilderness, VA went from 11 in May 2025 to 13 in May 2026, a +18.2% change. Rising inventory is the single most useful leading indicator for buyers: more choice, longer marketing times, and more sellers willing to negotiate before price cuts show up in the median.
| Month | Active listings | New listings |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | 12 | 6 |
| July 2025 | 14 | 9 |
| August 2025 | 13 | 7 |
| September 2025 | 9 | 2 |
| October 2025 | 14 | 8 |
| November 2025 | 14 | 2 |
| December 2025 | 11 | 5 |
| January 2026 | 7 | 1 |
| February 2026 | 6 | 2 |
| March 2026 | 9 | 5 |
| April 2026 | 8 | 5 |
| May 2026 | 13 | 10 |
Redfin, through May 2026
How does Lake Wilderness compare to Virginia and the U.S.?
Lake Wilderness homes sell for $390,000 — 22% below the Virginia median of $499,300. Against the national median of $410,700, Lake Wilderness runs 5% lower. Year-over-year, Lake Wilderness moved +5.4% against Virginia's +3.9% — a bigger swing than the state as a whole.
| Market | Median sale price | YoY | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Wilderness, VA | $390,000 | +5.4% | 32 days |
| Virginia statewide | $499,300 | +3.9% | 28 days |
| United States | $410,700 | not published | not published |
City and state rows: Redfin, through May 2026 · U.S. row: Freddie Mac via FRED, April 2026 (MSPUS, quarterly)
What to do next in Lake Wilderness
What buyers should watch
- Months of supply, currently 13.0. It turns before price does — when it climbs past 6, sellers start taking offers they would have rejected a quarter earlier.
- The share of listings cutting price, currently 30.8%. A listing that has already cut once is the one most likely to accept below asking.
- The gap between 5% and 20% down here is $390 a month in principal and interest alone, before mortgage insurance. That gap, not the price, is usually what decides your timeline.
- Rate moves. At 7.03%, every full point of rate change moves the payment on a $390,000 home more than a 5% price change does.
- Your credit tier before you shop, not after — it sets the rate you are quoted. Run your numbers first.
What sellers should know
- The median Lake Wilderness listing goes under contract in 32 days. If yours passes that mark, the market is telling you the price is wrong — not that you need more showings.
- Homes here close at 100.0% of asking. Price at the number you want and let competition do the rest.
- In the last published month Lake Wilderness added 10 new listings against 1 sales — more competition arriving than clearing, so early timing matters.
- Comparable ZIP-level pricing inside Lake Wilderness varies more than the citywide median suggests — check the ZIP pages below before you set a number.
Homes for sale in Lake Wilderness
There are currently 13 homes listed for sale in Lake Wilderness, Virginia. The median listing price is $530K. Featured listings range from $329,900 to $699,900.
12
$330,000
12914 Trapp Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,344 sqft$246/ft²
House22,216 sqft lot
Chantel Lee · Century 21 Lifestyle
View photos & details
52
$359,900
13218 Flintlock Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,382 sqft$260/ft²
House23,522 sqft lot
Jennifer Donaldson · Real Broker, LLC
View photos & details
New Listing
40
$369,900
13410 Wilderness Park Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,144 sqft$323/ft²
House20,473 sqft lot
Leslie Amore · Belcher Real Estate, LLC.
View photos & details
New Listing
34
$389,900
11801 Wilderness Park Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,691 sqft$231/ft²
House20,402 sqft lot
Alicia Davis · The Realty Solutions Group, , LLC.
View photos & details
23
$390,000
11601 Wilderness Park Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,208 sqft$323/ft²
House20,386 sqft lot
Benjamin Quann · Century 21 Redwood Realty
View photos & details
New Listing
40
$399,900
11004 Platoon Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd2 ba1,648 sqft$243/ft²
House17,424 sqft lot
Jennifer Layton · Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc.
View photos & details
New Listing
35
$425,000
12804 Plantation Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
4 bd3 ba2,086 sqft$204/ft²
House17,424 sqft lot
Lenwood Johnson · EXP Realty, LLC
View photos & details
New Build
50
$499,900
10912 Thiel Ct
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
4 bd3 ba2,220 sqft$225/ft²
House18,295 sqft lot
Alexander Belcher · Belcher Real Estate, LLC.
View photos & details
New Build
68
$524,900
12413 Toll House Rd
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
4 bd3 ba2,220 sqft$236/ft²
House24,394 sqft lot
Alexander Belcher · Belcher Real Estate, LLC.
View photos & details
New Listing
36
$649,900
11601 Macfaden Dr
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
4 bd4 ba3,042 sqft$214/ft²
House1.18 acres
Muhammad mir · First American Real Estate
View photos & details
Price Drop −$25K
79
$699,900
12504 Hawkins Ln
Lake Wilderness, VA 22551
3 bd3 ba2,100 sqft$333/ft²
House20,269 sqft lot
Annette Roberts · RE/MAX Cornerstone Realty
View photos & details
Looking to buy in Lake Wilderness?
Get connected with a local real estate expert — free, no obligation.
Active listings
13
Homes on market
Median list price
$530K
Avg. days on market
32
Days until sale
New this week
10
Newly listed
Price drops:30.8%of listings
Sale-to-list:100.0%
How much do homes cost in Lake Wilderness by property type?
How the Lake Wilderness, VA market breaks down across single-family homes, condos and townhouses. Redfin, through May 2026
| Property type | Median price | Price / sq ft | Homes sold | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $390,000 | $323/sq ft | 1 | 32 days |
Who lives in Lake Wilderness?
American Community Survey estimates for Lake Wilderness. U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Population
3,255
Households
1,060
Median income
$115,781/yr
Median age
34.2 years
Owner-occupied
89.3%
Median home value
$325,700
Median gross rent
$1,744/mo
Mean commute
40.9 min
89.3% of occupied homes in Lake Wilderness are owner-occupied, and the rest are rented — which is the share that decides how much of the local housing stock ever reaches the for-sale market.
Which cities are near Lake Wilderness, VA?
Ordered by distance from Lake Wilderness, not by size. Compare Lake Wilderness side by side with any of them.
Which ZIP codes are in Lake Wilderness?
These are the ZIP codes we see on active Lake Wilderness listings. Redfin did not publish a matching ZIP-level sale row for the same period, so we are not ranking them by price here — each ZIP page shows exactly what we hold for it.
Lake Wilderness housing market FAQ
Is Lake Wilderness a buyer's or seller's market?
Lake Wilderness, VA is currently a buyer's market. That read comes from 13.0 months of supply, homes going under contract in about 32 days, and sellers getting 100.0% of their asking price in the last month Redfin published (May 2026).
How much do homes cost in Lake Wilderness?
The median sale price in the last month Redfin published was $390,000, about $323 per square foot.
Is Lake Wilderness cheaper than the rest of Virginia?
Lake Wilderness's median sale price of $390,000 is 22% lower than the Virginia statewide median of $499,300, and 5% below the U.S. median of $410,700. Both figures are for the same period.
How long do homes take to sell in Lake Wilderness?
Homes in Lake Wilderness, VA spent a median of 32 days on market before going under contract, versus 28 days statewide. That is a normal pace: enough time to see a home twice, not enough to wait a month. (Redfin, through May 2026.)
What income do you need to buy a home in Lake Wilderness?
At the current 30-year fixed rate of 7.03%, 20% down on a $390,000 home is about $2,082 a month in principal and interest. Lenders typically want that under 28% of gross income, which works out to roughly $89,230 a year before taxes, insurance, HOA dues or mortgage insurance. The local median household income is $115,781.
Are home prices rising in Lake Wilderness?
Redfin's last published year-over-year change for Lake Wilderness, VA was +5.4%, measured through May 2026. That series is frozen; treat it as a historical reading rather than a current trend.
What are the cheapest ZIP codes in Lake Wilderness?
Lake Wilderness ZIP-level sale prices are not all published for the same period, so ranking them would compare different months. The ZIP pages listed on this page show what we hold for each one individually.
Is now a good time to buy in Lake Wilderness?
That depends on your timeline, not on a headline. What the data says today: Lake Wilderness, VA is a buyer's market with 13.0 months of supply, the 30-year fixed rate is 7.03%. Properties Incorporated publishes the data; it does not give financial advice.
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