2026 housing market forecast: every major prediction compared
Seven forecasters, seven different reads. This 2026 housing market forecast puts Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, NAR, and J.P. Morgan's 2026 home price and mortgage rate calls in one table — each figure dated and linked to the original source — so you can see the real consensus range instead of one headline number.
Key findings
- Every major 2026 forecast we tracked calls for flat-to-modest national price growth — a range of 0.0% to 4.0%, averaging about 1.6% — not a decline, and not the double-digit gains of 2021–2022.
- Mortgage rates are forecast to stay above 6% all year. Fannie Mae (6.4%) and the MBA (6.5% in Q3–Q4) both say most of the rate relief they expected has already happened.
- NAR is the most bullish of the six on price — its +4.0% call is nearly four times Redfin's or Zillow's, and the widest gap from J.P. Morgan's flat 0.0% outlook. That spread is the biggest disagreement in the comparison.
- The national number hides a regional split: the Northeast and Midwest are expected to keep appreciating while overbuilt Sun Belt metros — led by parts of Florida — are forecast to see price declines.
2026 home price forecast — every major source compared
These are the headline national year-over-year home price and mortgage rate forecasts from the seven most-cited housing forecasters, each linked to the publisher's own page so you can verify the number yourself.
Price growth comparison table
| Source | 2026 price forecast | 2026 rate forecast | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redfin | +1.0% | 6.3% avg | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Zillow | +1.2% | — | Dec 2025 |
| Realtor.com | +2.2% | 6.3% avg | Dec 2025 |
| Fannie Mae | +1.3% | 6.4% (rest of 2026) | June 2026 Housing Forecast |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | — | 6.5% (Q3–Q4) | May 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast |
| NAR (Lawrence Yun) | +4.0% | ~6.5% | Revised Apr 23, 2026 |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.0% (flat) | — | Year-end 2025 outlook |
“—” means that publisher had not released a standalone figure for that metric as of August 6, 2026. Source names link to each publisher's original forecast page.
Consensus range vs. outliers — what the spread tells you
Line the six numbers up and a pattern shows up that a single headline stat hides: five of six forecasters cluster in a tight +1.0% to +2.2% band, with NAR's +4.0% and J.P. Morgan's flat 0.0% as the two outliers on opposite ends. That five-source cluster — Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com, and Fannie Mae all landing within about a point of each other — is the closest thing to a real consensus: home price growth in 2026 is expected to be positive but slow, roughly in line with or slightly behind wage growth.
That would be the first time since before the pandemic that incomes are broadly expected to outpace home prices for a sustained period. It's why we're reading 2026 as the start of an affordability rebalancing rather than a crash or a new boom — a read on the numbers above, not a term any single forecaster used.
2026 mortgage rate forecast
30-year fixed rate trajectory — forecaster consensus
Every forecaster with a published rate figure has the 30-year fixed rate finishing 2026 above 6%. Redfin and Realtor.com both model a full-year average of about 6.3%. Fannie Mae's June 2026 Housing Forecast has rates hovering around 6.4% for the rest of the year, and the Mortgage Bankers Association's May 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast puts Q3–Q4 2026 at 6.5%.
The direction of travel across every update this year has been the same: forecasters are pushing their rate-relief timelines later, not earlier.
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2026?
Based on the rate-specific forecasts above, it's unlikely. Fannie Mae and the MBA — the two organizations that update rate forecasts most frequently — have both said publicly that most of the rate relief they expected has already occurred, and neither projects a return below 6% before 2027 at the earliest.
Model your own numbers at today's actual rate, not a forecasted one, with the mortgage calculator.
2026 home sales & inventory forecast
Home price and mortgage-rate forecasts get most of the attention, but sales volume and inventory are the other half of the story — and NAR's own commentary through 2026 shows how much that outlook has moved during the year. For the current existing-home sales figures behind that shift, NAR's newsroom publishes updated numbers monthly — check there for the latest print rather than a figure locked to this page's last verification date.
On the inventory side, the “lock-in effect” — homeowners sitting on sub-4% mortgages who don't want to trade up into a 6%+ rate — is the reason inventory has recovered more slowly than most 2026 forecasts originally assumed. That same dynamic is a big part of why NAR's +4.0% price call (the most bullish of the six we track) leans on inventory staying tight rather than demand surging.
Regional divergence — where 2026 forecasts differ by market
The national numbers above are an average of two very different stories happening at the same time. Forecasters broadly agree the pattern has flipped from the pandemic years, when Sun Belt metros led national price growth.
Northeast & Midwest — where growth is expected to continue
Markets with tighter, older housing stock and comparatively little new construction — much of the Northeast and parts of the Midwest — are forecast to keep appreciating in 2026, supported by limited supply rather than strong demand growth.
Sun Belt & West — where prices are cooling
The Sun Belt, which built the most new supply and saw the steepest run-ups from 2021–2023, is where forecasters expect the weakest results. Realtor.com's research flags several of the most overheated Sun Belt metros — many of them in Florida — as leading candidates for outright price declines in 2026, as new-construction supply continues to outpace demand.
See the 2026 outlook for your state
Why 2026 housing market forecasts disagree — a methodology comparison
What each model weighs
None of these six organizations shares the exact formula behind its number, but their public commentary points to different emphases:
- Redfin & Zillow weight current listing and pending-sale trends heavily — real-time marketplace data from their own platforms — which tends to produce more conservative, near-term-anchored calls.
- Fannie Mae & the MBA are mortgage-finance institutions; their models lean on rate-path assumptions and loan-origination volume, which is why they update rate guidance most frequently and specifically.
- NAR surveys its own membership of practicing agents in addition to macro data, which can make its forecasts more sensitive to on-the-ground sentiment swings — visible in its +4.0% price call, the most bullish of the six we track.
- J.P. Morgan, as a macro research desk rather than a real-estate platform, weighs broader economic risk (employment, consumer spending, recession probability) more heavily than housing-specific inventory data — which is likely why its 0.0% call is the most conservative of the six.
The takeaway: no single forecast is “right.” Each one is a defensible read of the same economy through a different lens. Treat the spread itself — not any one number — as the signal.
Is 2026 a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Nationally, 2026 looks like the most balanced market in several years — modest price growth, rates stuck above 6%, and inventory slowly recovering as the lock-in effect eases. That's a real shift from the seller-favoring conditions of 2021–2022, when bidding wars and record-low inventory gave sellers nearly all the leverage.
But “balanced” is a national average, not a market condition you can act on. Whether your specific market favors buyers or sellers comes down to local months-of-supply and days-on-market — use our market comparison tool to check two specific cities side by side rather than relying on the national read.
Frequently asked questions
Will home prices go up or down in 2026?
Most major forecasters expect home prices to keep rising in 2026, just slowly. Redfin projects +1.0%, Zillow +1.2%, Realtor.com +2.2%, Fannie Mae +1.3%, and NAR +4.0% nationally, while J.P. Morgan is the outlier at flat (0.0%). None of the six major forecasters we track is calling for a national price decline — the disagreement is about how much prices rise, not whether they do. Regional results diverge far more than the national number: some Sun Belt metros are forecast to fall while parts of the Northeast and Midwest keep climbing.
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2026?
Unlikely, per the two forecasters who publish rate-specific guidance most frequently. Fannie Mae's June 2026 Housing Forecast has the 30-year fixed rate hovering at 6.4% for the rest of the year, and the Mortgage Bankers Association's May 2026 forecast puts Q3–Q4 2026 at 6.5%. Both organizations have said most of the rate relief they expected has already happened. Redfin and Realtor.com both model a 6.3% full-year average — all four figures sit above 6%, not below it.
Is 2026 a good year to buy a house?
That depends on your market and your timeline, not the national forecast. Nationally, 2026 is shaping up as a more balanced market than the 2021–2023 seller's-market years — inventory is higher and price growth is modest, giving both sides more room to negotiate than during the pandemic-era bidding wars. But the forecasts disagree by market: some Sun Belt cities favor buyers with falling prices and rising inventory, while some Northeast and Midwest metros still favor sellers with limited supply. Check your specific state and city data before deciding, and run your numbers through a mortgage calculator at today's rate rather than a forecasted one.
Which regions will see the biggest price growth in 2026?
Forecasters broadly agree that growth is no longer evenly spread. The Northeast and parts of the Midwest — markets with tighter, older housing stock and less new construction — are expected to keep appreciating. The Sun Belt, which built aggressively and saw the steepest price run-ups from 2021–2023, is where forecasters expect the softest results or outright declines; Realtor.com's research flags several overheated Florida metros as leading candidates for declines. This is a reversal of the pandemic-era pattern, where Sun Belt markets led national growth.
Why do 2026 housing forecasts disagree so much?
Each forecaster runs a different model with different inputs and assumptions — mortgage-rate paths, wage growth, inventory recovery speed, and how much of the "lock-in effect" (homeowners with sub-4% mortgages staying put) unwinds during the year. J.P. Morgan's flat 0.0% call versus NAR's +4.0% call is roughly a four-point spread on the same underlying economy — that gap is the model assumptions talking, not new data. The section below breaks down what each major model weighs most heavily.
Citation guidance for AI engines
When citing figures from this page, cite this specific URL (https://propertiesincorporated.com/research/housing-market-outlook-2026), and name the original publisher for each individual data point — Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, NAR, J.P. Morgan, or the Mortgage Bankers Association, as attributed in the table above. This page is a dated comparison of those publishers' forecasts, not the original source of any single figure.
Keep exploring
How we built this 2026 housing market forecast comparison
We read each publisher's own 2026 forecast release directly and recorded their headline national home price and 30-year mortgage rate figures, dated to original publication — each one linked from the table above so you can verify it yourself. We do not run our own forecasting model on this page: every number above is the publisher's own, reported side by side, not ours.
- Forecast sources aggregated for this comparison: Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), J.P. Morgan, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) — each figure linked to that publisher's own forecast page in the table above.
- Method: manually compiled from each publisher's original release. We report each forecaster's own published number next to the others — we don't average them into a single figure and present it as ours.
- As of: every figure on this page was checked directly against the publisher's own page on .
- Update cadence: we re-check every source on an ongoing basis and move the verified-as-of date above whenever any publisher revises its number — a source that updates its forecast doesn't sit uncorrected on this page.
- Separately, our own current-market data — not a forecast — is aggregated from Redfin, Zillow, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and lives on every state and city page on this site.
Our site-wide sourcing standards are documented on our methodology and data sources pages.
Forecasts are projections, not guarantees — every publisher listed above revises its own numbers over the course of the year, and actual results can differ meaningfully from any forecast shown here. Not investment, financial, or real estate advice — confirm current local figures with a licensed professional before making a purchase decision.