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Featured local agent — Surprise, AZ
Sarah Mitchell
Compass Real Estate · Surprise, AZ
“Your trusted relocation specialist since 2009. 350+ homes sold. Zero-pressure, data-first approach.”
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Surprise, AZ Housing Market
The typical home in Surprise, AZ is worth $415,995, fell 2.2% over the past year (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026). The last median sale price Redfin published was $435,000 (through May 2026). With 3.5 months of supply and homes going under contract in about 78 days, Surprise is a balanced market. At today's 7.03% 30-year fixed rate, 20% down on a $415,995 home is about $2,221/mo in principal and interest.
Key numbers for Surprise, AZ
Typical home value
$415,995
-2.2% in 12 months
Zillow, August 2026
Typical asking rent
$1,947/mo
Zillow Observed Rent Index
Zillow, August 2026
Median sale price
$435,000
Last published period
Redfin, through May 2026
Days on market
78
Slow-moving
Redfin, through May 2026
Active listings
1,349
3.5 months of supply
Redfin, through May 2026
30-yr fixed rate
7.03%
Freddie Mac weekly average
Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026
Median household income
$93,371
Home costs 4.5x income
U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Sale-to-list ratio
98.6%
Selling below asking
Redfin, through May 2026
Zillow figures are as of August 2026 and refresh monthly. Redfin figures are through May 2026 — Redfin stopped publishing its public market trackers in June 2026, so those numbers are final, not current. Mortgage rates come from Freddie Mac via FRED and update weekly.
Is Surprise a buyer's or seller's market?
Surprise, AZ is a balanced market, based on 3.5 months of supply and homes selling in about 78 days. Under 4 months of supply tilts the market toward sellers: homes clear faster than they are replaced, so concessions are scarce.
Inputs are Redfin's final published period (May 2026). How we classify markets · Where the data comes from
What does the Surprise housing market data show?
Every row below is Redfin's final published month for Surprise, AZ. Redfin, through May 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $435,000 |
| Median list price | $442,720 |
| Median price per sq ft | $221/sq ft |
| Median days on market | 78 days |
| Active inventory | 1,349 listings |
| Months of supply | 3.5 months |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 98.6% |
| Homes sold (that month) | 383 |
| New listings (that month) | 377 |
| Listings with a price cut | 33.1% |
| Market condition | Balanced market |
How to read these numbers
- Median sale price
- Half the homes that closed sold for more than this, half for less. It moves with what kind of home sold that month, so a quiet month with two big sales can swing it. Redfin's figure for Surprise is frozen at May 2026.
- Typical home value (ZHVI)
- Zillow's estimate of what a mid-market home in Surprise is worth right now, whether or not it sold. It is smoother than the median sale price and it still refreshes monthly, which is why this page leads with it.
- Months of supply
- How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under 3 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers, and 3 to 6 is the balanced band.
- Days on market
- Median time from listing to accepted offer. Short means you should have financing ready before you tour; long means there is room to negotiate on price and repairs.
- Sale-to-list ratio
- Sale price divided by the last asking price. Above 100% means bidding above asking is normal here; below 100% means the typical buyer got a discount.
- Price per square foot
- The size-adjusted price. Use it to compare a 1,400 sq ft house to a 2,600 sq ft house, not to value your own home — lot, condition and age move it a lot.
- Listings with a price cut
- Share of active listings that dropped their asking price in the month. A high share is the earliest visible sign that sellers are ahead of what buyers will pay.
- Typical asking rent (ZORI)
- Zillow's repeat-rent index for asking rents on new leases. Paired with the home value it gives the price-to-rent ratio in the rent-vs-buy section below.
How have Surprise home prices moved?
Over the last three years the median sale price in Surprise, AZ rose 2.4%, from $425,000 to $435,000. The live Zillow value series has fell 2.2% in the last 12 months, which is the more current read now that Redfin's series has stopped. 33.1% of Surprise listings cut their asking price in the final Redfin month — a high share, and the clearest sign that list prices were running ahead of what buyers would pay. For prices to fall meaningfully from here, supply would have to keep building past 3.5 months while the sale-to-list ratio slips below its current 98.6%. Watch those two together — they move before the median does.
Redfin, through May 2026 — the chart ends at Redfin's final published month.
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What does it cost to buy a home in Surprise?
Priced off the typical home value of $415,995 at the current 7.03% 30-year fixed rate. These are principal and interest only — property taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance are on top, and they vary enough by property that we will not guess them for you.
| Down payment | Cash at close | Loan amount | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $83,199 | $332,796 | $2,221/mo |
| 5% | $20,800 | $395,195 | $2,637/mo |
Zillow, August 2026 for the price · Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026 for the rate
What income do you need?
Lenders generally want housing costs under 28% of gross income. On the 20%-down payment of $2,221, that implies roughly $95,178 a year before you add taxes and insurance. The median household in Surprise earns $93,371, about $1,807 short of that threshold — the typical local household needs a larger down payment, a co-borrower, or a home below the typical home value to fit the 28% rule. That puts the price-to-income ratio at 4.5x — above the historical 3x norm but in line with much of the country in 2026.
Run it with your own numbers: affordability calculator · mortgage calculator
Buying in Surprise in the next 12 months?
Tell us your timeline. We send the Surprise market brief: the price ranges that actually clear, how long homes sit, and what to fix on your credit before you apply.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Surprise?
Typical asking rent in Surprise, AZ is $1,947/mo, against a typical home value of $415,995. That is a price-to-rent ratio of 17.8x, which means buying and renting land close enough together that the decision turns on how long you stay and your down payment. Compared head to head, 20% down puts principal and interest at $2,221 a month — $274 more than renting before taxes and insurance, so the ownership case here rests on equity and appreciation rather than monthly cash flow.
Zillow, August 2026 for both value and rent
Add your own down payment, tax rate and time horizon in the rent vs. buy calculator.
Is inventory rising or falling in Surprise?
Active listings in Surprise, AZ went from 1,613 in May 2025 to 1,349 in May 2026, a -16.4% change. Falling inventory tightens competition. When supply drops while demand holds, sale-to-list ratios rise before the median sale price does.
| Month | Active listings | New listings |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | 1,541 | 352 |
| July 2025 | 1,469 | 364 |
| August 2025 | 1,389 | 360 |
| September 2025 | 1,447 | 427 |
| October 2025 | 1,572 | 513 |
| November 2025 | 1,522 | 341 |
| December 2025 | 1,437 | 312 |
| January 2026 | 1,602 | 538 |
| February 2026 | 1,638 | 437 |
| March 2026 | 1,594 | 489 |
| April 2026 | 1,461 | 403 |
| May 2026 | 1,349 | 377 |
Redfin, through May 2026
How does Surprise compare to Arizona and the U.S.?
Surprise homes sell for $435,000 — 4% below the Arizona median of $453,800. Against the national median of $410,700, Surprise runs 6% higher.
| Market | Median sale price | YoY | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surprise, AZ | $435,000 | not published | 78 days |
| Arizona statewide | $453,800 | +0.5% | 62 days |
| United States | $410,700 | not published | not published |
City and state rows: Redfin, through May 2026 · U.S. row: Freddie Mac via FRED, April 2026 (MSPUS, quarterly)
What to do next in Surprise
What buyers should watch
- Months of supply, currently 3.5. It turns before price does — when it climbs past 6, sellers start taking offers they would have rejected a quarter earlier.
- The share of listings cutting price, currently 33.1%. A listing that has already cut once is the one most likely to accept below asking.
- The gap between 5% and 20% down here is $416 a month in principal and interest alone, before mortgage insurance. That gap, not the price, is usually what decides your timeline.
- Rate moves. At 7.03%, every full point of rate change moves the payment on a $415,995 home more than a 5% price change does.
- Your credit tier before you shop, not after — it sets the rate you are quoted. Run your numbers first.
What sellers should know
- The median Surprise listing goes under contract in 78 days. If yours passes that mark, the market is telling you the price is wrong — not that you need more showings.
- Homes here close at 98.6% of asking. Price to that ratio from day one rather than chasing the market down in cuts.
- In the last published month Surprise added 377 new listings against 383 sales — more clearing than arriving, which is the better window to list.
- Your equity moved -2.2% in the last 12 months on the Zillow value series. That, not the price you paid, is what sets your net proceeds.
- Comparable ZIP-level pricing inside Surprise varies more than the citywide median suggests — check the ZIP pages below before you set a number.
Homes for sale in Surprise
There are currently 1,349 homes listed for sale in Surprise, Arizona. The median listing price is $443K.
Active listings
1,349
Homes on market
Median list price
$443K
Avg. days on market
78
Days until sale
New this week
377
Newly listed
How much do homes cost in Surprise by property type?
How the Surprise, AZ market breaks down across single-family homes, condos and townhouses. Redfin, through May 2026
| Property type | Median price | Price / sq ft | Homes sold | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $437,812 | $220/sq ft | 372 | 77 days |
| Condo / co-op | $197,495 | $218/sq ft | 2 | 63 days |
| Townhouse | $342,500 | $235/sq ft | 8 | 102 days |
Who lives in Surprise?
American Community Survey estimates for Surprise. U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Population
149,519
Households
54,442
Median income
$93,371/yr
Median age
41.6 years
Owner-occupied
79.0%
Median home value
$396,000
Median gross rent
$1,917/mo
Mean commute
30.3 min
79.0% of occupied homes in Surprise are owner-occupied, and the rest are rented — which is the share that decides how much of the local housing stock ever reaches the for-sale market. The Census self-reported median home value is $396,000 against Zillow's $415,995 typical value; the gap is normal — ACS asks owners what they think their home is worth, Zillow models transactions. Census median gross rent (all leases, including long-held ones) is $1,917/mo, below Zillow's $1,947/mo asking rent on new leases — the difference is roughly what a mover pays over a stayer.
Which public schools serve Surprise?
35 schools tracked · 28,231 students
The largest public schools serving Surprise, AZ by enrollment, drawn from the National Center for Education Statistics. School quality is a commonly cited factor in home-buying decisions — these are the campuses families in this area are most likely to encounter.
Valley Vista High School
Grades 7-12 · 2,443 students
Shadow Ridge High School
Grades 7-12 · 2,339 students
Paradise Honors Elementary School
Grades K-8 · 1,919 students
American Leadership Academy West Foothills K-12
Grades K-12 · 1,883 students
Legacy Traditional School - Surprise
Grades K-8 · 1,868 students
Willow Canyon High School
Grades 7-12 · 1,819 students
Legacy Traditional School - West Surprise
Grades K-8 · 1,215 students
Asante Preparatory Academy
Grades PK-8 · 1,134 students
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data directory. Updated annually. Ratings and test scores are not currently displayed.
Which cities are near Surprise, AZ?
Ordered by distance from Surprise, not by size. Compare Surprise side by side with any of them.
Surprise housing market FAQ
Is Surprise a buyer's or seller's market?
Surprise, AZ is currently a balanced market. That read comes from 3.5 months of supply, homes going under contract in about 78 days, and sellers getting 98.6% of their asking price in the last month Redfin published (May 2026).
How much do homes cost in Surprise?
The typical home in Surprise, AZ is worth $415,995 (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026). The median sale price in the last month Redfin published was $435,000, about $221 per square foot.
Is Surprise cheaper than the rest of Arizona?
Surprise's median sale price of $435,000 is 4% lower than the Arizona statewide median of $453,800, and 6% above the U.S. median of $410,700. Both figures are for the same period.
How long do homes take to sell in Surprise?
Homes in Surprise, AZ spent a median of 78 days on market before going under contract, versus 62 days statewide. Over two months means buyers have time to inspect, compare and negotiate. (Redfin, through May 2026.)
What income do you need to buy a home in Surprise?
At the current 30-year fixed rate of 7.03%, 20% down on a $415,995 home is about $2,221 a month in principal and interest. Lenders typically want that under 28% of gross income, which works out to roughly $95,178 a year before taxes, insurance, HOA dues or mortgage insurance. The local median household income is $93,371.
Are home prices rising in Surprise?
The typical home value in Surprise, AZ fell 2.2% over the last 12 months, from $425,318 to $415,995 (Zillow, August 2026). This is the live series — it refreshes monthly.
What are the cheapest ZIP codes in Surprise?
Surprise ZIP-level sale prices are not all published for the same period, so ranking them would compare different months. The ZIP pages listed on this page show what we hold for each one individually.
Is now a good time to buy in Surprise?
That depends on your timeline, not on a headline. What the data says today: Surprise, AZ is a balanced market with 3.5 months of supply, the 30-year fixed rate is 7.03%, and the price-to-rent ratio of 17.8x means buying and renting land close enough together that the decision turns on how long you stay and your down payment. Properties Incorporated publishes the data; it does not give financial advice.
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