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Featured local agent — Lake Barcroft, VA
Sarah Mitchell
Compass Real Estate · Lake Barcroft, VA
“Your trusted relocation specialist since 2009. 350+ homes sold. Zero-pressure, data-first approach.”
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Lake Barcroft, VA Housing Market
The last median sale price Redfin published was $1.01M, +14.8% year over year (through May 2026). With 1.5 months of supply and homes going under contract in about 26 days, Lake Barcroft is a strong seller's market. At today's 7.03% 30-year fixed rate, 20% down on a $1.01M home is about $5,392/mo in principal and interest.
Key numbers for Lake Barcroft, VA
Median sale price
$1.01M
+14.8% year over year
Redfin, through May 2026
Days on market
26
Average pace
Redfin, through May 2026
Active listings
29
1.5 months of supply
Redfin, through May 2026
30-yr fixed rate
7.03%
Freddie Mac weekly average
Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026
Median household income
$143,796
Home costs 7.0x income
U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Sale-to-list ratio
101.4%
Selling above asking
Redfin, through May 2026
Zillow figures refresh monthly. Redfin figures are through May 2026 — Redfin stopped publishing its public market trackers in June 2026, so those numbers are final, not current. Mortgage rates come from Freddie Mac via FRED and update weekly.
Is Lake Barcroft a buyer's or seller's market?
Lake Barcroft, VA is a strong seller's market, based on 1.5 months of supply and homes selling in about 26 days. Under 2 months of supply is a severe shortage: expect competition on almost anything priced correctly, and little room to negotiate below asking.
Inputs are Redfin's final published period (May 2026). How we classify markets · Where the data comes from
What does the Lake Barcroft housing market data show?
Every row below is Redfin's final published month for Lake Barcroft, VA. Redfin, through May 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1.01M |
| Median list price | $1.00M |
| Year-over-year price change | +14.8% |
| Median price per sq ft | $389/sq ft |
| Median days on market | 26 days |
| Active inventory | 29 listings |
| Months of supply | 1.5 months |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 101.4% |
| Homes sold (that month) | 19 |
| New listings (that month) | 15 |
| Listings with a price cut | 27.6% |
| Market condition | Strong seller's market |
How to read these numbers
- Median sale price
- Half the homes that closed sold for more than this, half for less. It moves with what kind of home sold that month, so a quiet month with two big sales can swing it. Redfin's figure for Lake Barcroft is frozen at May 2026.
- Typical home value (ZHVI)
- Zillow's estimate of what a mid-market home in Lake Barcroft is worth right now, whether or not it sold. It is smoother than the median sale price and it still refreshes monthly, which is why this page leads with it.
- Months of supply
- How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under 3 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers, and 3 to 6 is the balanced band.
- Days on market
- Median time from listing to accepted offer. Short means you should have financing ready before you tour; long means there is room to negotiate on price and repairs.
- Sale-to-list ratio
- Sale price divided by the last asking price. Above 100% means bidding above asking is normal here; below 100% means the typical buyer got a discount.
- Price per square foot
- The size-adjusted price. Use it to compare a 1,400 sq ft house to a 2,600 sq ft house, not to value your own home — lot, condition and age move it a lot.
- Listings with a price cut
- Share of active listings that dropped their asking price in the month. A high share is the earliest visible sign that sellers are ahead of what buyers will pay.
- Typical asking rent (ZORI)
- Zillow's repeat-rent index for asking rents on new leases. Paired with the home value it gives the price-to-rent ratio in the rent-vs-buy section below.
How have Lake Barcroft home prices moved?
Over the last three years the median sale price in Lake Barcroft, VA rose 23.7%, from $816,250 to $1.01M. 27.6% of Lake Barcroft listings cut their asking price in the final Redfin month — a high share, and the clearest sign that list prices were running ahead of what buyers would pay. For prices to fall meaningfully from here, supply would have to keep building past 1.5 months while the sale-to-list ratio slips below its current 101.4%. Watch those two together — they move before the median does.
Redfin, through May 2026 — the chart ends at Redfin's final published month.
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What does it cost to buy a home in Lake Barcroft?
Priced off the median sale price of $1.01M at the current 7.03% 30-year fixed rate. These are principal and interest only — property taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance are on top, and they vary enough by property that we will not guess them for you.
| Down payment | Cash at close | Loan amount | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $202,000 | $808,000 | $5,392/mo |
| 5% | $50,500 | $959,500 | $6,403/mo |
Redfin, through May 2026 for the price · Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026 for the rate
What income do you need?
Lenders generally want housing costs under 28% of gross income. On the 20%-down payment of $5,392, that implies roughly $231,083 a year before you add taxes and insurance. The median household in Lake Barcroft earns $143,796, about $87,287 short of that threshold — the typical local household needs a larger down payment, a co-borrower, or a home below the median sale price to fit the 28% rule. That puts the price-to-income ratio at 7.0x — well above the 3x that was historically considered affordable, which is why down payment size drives who can buy here.
Run it with your own numbers: affordability calculator · mortgage calculator
Buying in Lake Barcroft in the next 12 months?
Tell us your timeline. We send the Lake Barcroft market brief: the price ranges that actually clear, how long homes sit, and what to fix on your credit before you apply.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lake Barcroft?
Zillow does not publish a rent index (ZORI) for Lake Barcroft, VA, so we cannot compute a price-to-rent ratio here without borrowing a nearby market's rents and calling them local — which we will not do. The rent vs. buy calculator works with a rent figure you supply.
Is inventory rising or falling in Lake Barcroft?
Active listings in Lake Barcroft, VA went from 25 in May 2025 to 29 in May 2026, a +16.0% change. Rising inventory is the single most useful leading indicator for buyers: more choice, longer marketing times, and more sellers willing to negotiate before price cuts show up in the median.
| Month | Active listings | New listings |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | 22 | 13 |
| July 2025 | 16 | 8 |
| August 2025 | 14 | 7 |
| September 2025 | 23 | 19 |
| October 2025 | 23 | 12 |
| November 2025 | 18 | 4 |
| December 2025 | 11 | 2 |
| January 2026 | 12 | 8 |
| February 2026 | 12 | 10 |
| March 2026 | 15 | 17 |
| April 2026 | 29 | 22 |
| May 2026 | 29 | 15 |
Redfin, through May 2026
How does Lake Barcroft compare to Virginia and the U.S.?
Lake Barcroft homes sell for $1.01M — 102% above the Virginia median of $499,300. Against the national median of $410,700, Lake Barcroft runs 146% higher. Year-over-year, Lake Barcroft moved +14.8% against Virginia's +3.9% — a bigger swing than the state as a whole.
| Market | Median sale price | YoY | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Barcroft, VA | $1.01M | +14.8% | 26 days |
| Virginia statewide | $499,300 | +3.9% | 28 days |
| United States | $410,700 | not published | not published |
City and state rows: Redfin, through May 2026 · U.S. row: Freddie Mac via FRED, April 2026 (MSPUS, quarterly)
What to do next in Lake Barcroft
What buyers should watch
- Months of supply, currently 1.5. It turns before price does — when it climbs past 6, sellers start taking offers they would have rejected a quarter earlier.
- The share of listings cutting price, currently 27.6%. A listing that has already cut once is the one most likely to accept below asking.
- The gap between 5% and 20% down here is $1,011 a month in principal and interest alone, before mortgage insurance. That gap, not the price, is usually what decides your timeline.
- Rate moves. At 7.03%, every full point of rate change moves the payment on a $1.01M home more than a 5% price change does.
- Your credit tier before you shop, not after — it sets the rate you are quoted. Run your numbers first.
What sellers should know
- The median Lake Barcroft listing goes under contract in 26 days. If yours passes that mark, the market is telling you the price is wrong — not that you need more showings.
- Homes here close at 101.4% of asking. Price at the number you want and let competition do the rest.
- In the last published month Lake Barcroft added 15 new listings against 19 sales — more clearing than arriving, which is the better window to list.
- Comparable ZIP-level pricing inside Lake Barcroft varies more than the citywide median suggests — check the ZIP pages below before you set a number.
Homes for sale in Lake Barcroft
There are currently 29 homes listed for sale in Lake Barcroft, Virginia. The median listing price is $1.0M.
Active listings
29
Homes on market
Median list price
$1.0M
Avg. days on market
26
Days until sale
New this week
15
Newly listed
How much do homes cost in Lake Barcroft by property type?
How the Lake Barcroft, VA market breaks down across single-family homes, condos and townhouses. Redfin, through May 2026
| Property type | Median price | Price / sq ft | Homes sold | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $1.05M | $398/sq ft | 16 | 30 days |
| Condo / co-op | $250,000 | $300/sq ft | 3 | 13 days |
| Townhouse | $765,000 | $397/sq ft | 1 | 60 days |
Who lives in Lake Barcroft?
American Community Survey estimates for Lake Barcroft. U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Population
10,678
Households
3,925
Median income
$143,796/yr
Median age
42.9 years
Owner-occupied
69.4%
Median home value
$848,200
Median gross rent
$1,914/mo
Mean commute
30.1 min
69.4% of occupied homes in Lake Barcroft are owner-occupied, and the rest are rented — which is the share that decides how much of the local housing stock ever reaches the for-sale market.
Which cities are near Lake Barcroft, VA?
Ordered by distance from Lake Barcroft, not by size. Compare Lake Barcroft side by side with any of them.
Lake Barcroft housing market FAQ
Is Lake Barcroft a buyer's or seller's market?
Lake Barcroft, VA is currently a strong seller's market. That read comes from 1.5 months of supply, homes going under contract in about 26 days, and sellers getting 101.4% of their asking price in the last month Redfin published (May 2026).
How much do homes cost in Lake Barcroft?
The median sale price in the last month Redfin published was $1.01M, about $389 per square foot.
Is Lake Barcroft cheaper than the rest of Virginia?
Lake Barcroft's median sale price of $1.01M is 102% higher than the Virginia statewide median of $499,300, and 146% above the U.S. median of $410,700. Both figures are for the same period.
How long do homes take to sell in Lake Barcroft?
Homes in Lake Barcroft, VA spent a median of 26 days on market before going under contract, versus 28 days statewide. That is a normal pace: enough time to see a home twice, not enough to wait a month. (Redfin, through May 2026.)
What income do you need to buy a home in Lake Barcroft?
At the current 30-year fixed rate of 7.03%, 20% down on a $1.01M home is about $5,392 a month in principal and interest. Lenders typically want that under 28% of gross income, which works out to roughly $231,083 a year before taxes, insurance, HOA dues or mortgage insurance. The local median household income is $143,796.
Are home prices rising in Lake Barcroft?
Redfin's last published year-over-year change for Lake Barcroft, VA was +14.8%, measured through May 2026. That series is frozen; treat it as a historical reading rather than a current trend.
What are the cheapest ZIP codes in Lake Barcroft?
Lake Barcroft ZIP-level sale prices are not all published for the same period, so ranking them would compare different months. The ZIP pages listed on this page show what we hold for each one individually.
Is now a good time to buy in Lake Barcroft?
That depends on your timeline, not on a headline. What the data says today: Lake Barcroft, VA is a strong seller's market with 1.5 months of supply, the 30-year fixed rate is 7.03%. Properties Incorporated publishes the data; it does not give financial advice.
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