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Featured local agent — Tonka Bay, MN
Sarah Mitchell
Compass Real Estate · Tonka Bay, MN
“Your trusted relocation specialist since 2009. 350+ homes sold. Zero-pressure, data-first approach.”
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Tonka Bay, MN Housing Market
The typical home in Tonka Bay, MN is worth $1.13M, rose 8.2% over the past year (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026). The last median sale price Redfin published was $421,736, -70.5% year over year (through May 2026). With 5.0 months of supply and homes going under contract in about 29 days, Tonka Bay is a seller's market. At today's 7.03% 30-year fixed rate, 20% down on a $1.13M home is about $6,032/mo in principal and interest.
Key numbers for Tonka Bay, MN
Typical home value
$1.13M
+8.2% in 12 months
Zillow, August 2026
Median sale price
$421,736
-70.5% year over year
Redfin, through May 2026
Days on market
29
Average pace
Redfin, through May 2026
Active listings
10
5.0 months of supply
Redfin, through May 2026
30-yr fixed rate
7.03%
Freddie Mac weekly average
Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026
Median household income
$151,563
Home costs 7.5x income
U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Sale-to-list ratio
103.9%
Selling above asking
Redfin, through May 2026
Zillow figures are as of August 2026 and refresh monthly. Redfin figures are through May 2026 — Redfin stopped publishing its public market trackers in June 2026, so those numbers are final, not current. Mortgage rates come from Freddie Mac via FRED and update weekly.
Is Tonka Bay a buyer's or seller's market?
Tonka Bay, MN is a seller's market, based on 5.0 months of supply and homes selling in about 29 days. 4 to 5 months of supply is the neutral band: neither side holds a structural advantage, and outcomes turn on the individual property.
Inputs are Redfin's final published period (May 2026). How we classify markets · Where the data comes from
What does the Tonka Bay housing market data show?
Every row below is Redfin's final published month for Tonka Bay, MN. Redfin, through May 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $421,736 |
| Median list price | $2.10M |
| Year-over-year price change | -70.5% |
| Median price per sq ft | $220/sq ft |
| Median days on market | 29 days |
| Active inventory | 10 listings |
| Months of supply | 5.0 months |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 103.9% |
| Homes sold (that month) | 2 |
| New listings (that month) | 5 |
| Listings with a price cut | 10.0% |
| Market condition | Seller's market |
How to read these numbers
- Median sale price
- Half the homes that closed sold for more than this, half for less. It moves with what kind of home sold that month, so a quiet month with two big sales can swing it. Redfin's figure for Tonka Bay is frozen at May 2026.
- Typical home value (ZHVI)
- Zillow's estimate of what a mid-market home in Tonka Bay is worth right now, whether or not it sold. It is smoother than the median sale price and it still refreshes monthly, which is why this page leads with it.
- Months of supply
- How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under 3 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers, and 3 to 6 is the balanced band.
- Days on market
- Median time from listing to accepted offer. Short means you should have financing ready before you tour; long means there is room to negotiate on price and repairs.
- Sale-to-list ratio
- Sale price divided by the last asking price. Above 100% means bidding above asking is normal here; below 100% means the typical buyer got a discount.
- Price per square foot
- The size-adjusted price. Use it to compare a 1,400 sq ft house to a 2,600 sq ft house, not to value your own home — lot, condition and age move it a lot.
- Listings with a price cut
- Share of active listings that dropped their asking price in the month. A high share is the earliest visible sign that sellers are ahead of what buyers will pay.
- Typical asking rent (ZORI)
- Zillow's repeat-rent index for asking rents on new leases. Paired with the home value it gives the price-to-rent ratio in the rent-vs-buy section below.
How have Tonka Bay home prices moved?
Over the last three years the median sale price in Tonka Bay, MN fell 13.9%, from $490,000 to $421,736. The live Zillow value series has rose 8.2% in the last 12 months, which is the more current read now that Redfin's series has stopped. 10.0% of Tonka Bay listings cut their asking price in the final Redfin month — a modest share, which is what a market looks like when sellers are pricing close to where homes actually clear. For prices to fall meaningfully from here, supply would have to keep building past 5.0 months while the sale-to-list ratio slips below its current 103.9%. Watch those two together — they move before the median does.
Redfin, through May 2026 — the chart ends at Redfin's final published month.
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What does it cost to buy a home in Tonka Bay?
Priced off the typical home value of $1.13M at the current 7.03% 30-year fixed rate. These are principal and interest only — property taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance are on top, and they vary enough by property that we will not guess them for you.
| Down payment | Cash at close | Loan amount | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $225,992 | $903,970 | $6,032/mo |
| 5% | $56,498 | $1.07M | $7,163/mo |
Zillow, August 2026 for the price · Freddie Mac via FRED, September 2026 for the rate
What income do you need?
Lenders generally want housing costs under 28% of gross income. On the 20%-down payment of $6,032, that implies roughly $258,530 a year before you add taxes and insurance. The median household in Tonka Bay earns $151,563, about $106,967 short of that threshold — the typical local household needs a larger down payment, a co-borrower, or a home below the typical home value to fit the 28% rule. That puts the price-to-income ratio at 7.5x — well above the 3x that was historically considered affordable, which is why down payment size drives who can buy here.
Run it with your own numbers: affordability calculator · mortgage calculator
Buying in Tonka Bay in the next 12 months?
Tell us your timeline. We send the Tonka Bay market brief: the price ranges that actually clear, how long homes sit, and what to fix on your credit before you apply.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tonka Bay?
Zillow does not publish a rent index (ZORI) for Tonka Bay, MN, so we cannot compute a price-to-rent ratio here without borrowing a nearby market's rents and calling them local — which we will not do. The rent vs. buy calculator works with a rent figure you supply.
Is inventory rising or falling in Tonka Bay?
Active listings in Tonka Bay, MN went from 2 in February 2025 to 10 in May 2026, a +400.0% change. Rising inventory is the single most useful leading indicator for buyers: more choice, longer marketing times, and more sellers willing to negotiate before price cuts show up in the median.
| Month | Active listings | New listings |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 2 | 2 |
| April 2025 | 7 | 6 |
| May 2025 | 8 | 5 |
| June 2025 | 4 | 2 |
| July 2025 | 7 | 6 |
| August 2025 | 6 | 2 |
| September 2025 | 6 | 3 |
| December 2025 | 6 | 2 |
| January 2026 | 4 | 1 |
| February 2026 | 9 | 7 |
| April 2026 | 11 | 4 |
| May 2026 | 10 | 5 |
Redfin, through May 2026
How does Tonka Bay compare to Minnesota and the U.S.?
Tonka Bay homes sell for $421,736 — 13% above the Minnesota median of $372,300. Against the national median of $410,700, Tonka Bay runs 3% higher. Year-over-year, Tonka Bay moved -70.5% against Minnesota's +1.3% — a bigger swing than the state as a whole.
| Market | Median sale price | YoY | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tonka Bay, MN | $421,736 | -70.5% | 29 days |
| Minnesota statewide | $372,300 | +1.3% | 25 days |
| United States | $410,700 | not published | not published |
City and state rows: Redfin, through May 2026 · U.S. row: Freddie Mac via FRED, April 2026 (MSPUS, quarterly)
What to do next in Tonka Bay
What buyers should watch
- Months of supply, currently 5.0. It turns before price does — when it climbs past 6, sellers start taking offers they would have rejected a quarter earlier.
- The share of listings cutting price, currently 10.0%. A listing that has already cut once is the one most likely to accept below asking.
- The gap between 5% and 20% down here is $1,131 a month in principal and interest alone, before mortgage insurance. That gap, not the price, is usually what decides your timeline.
- Rate moves. At 7.03%, every full point of rate change moves the payment on a $1.13M home more than a 5% price change does.
- Your credit tier before you shop, not after — it sets the rate you are quoted. Run your numbers first.
What sellers should know
- The median Tonka Bay listing goes under contract in 29 days. If yours passes that mark, the market is telling you the price is wrong — not that you need more showings.
- Homes here close at 103.9% of asking. Price at the number you want and let competition do the rest.
- In the last published month Tonka Bay added 5 new listings against 2 sales — more competition arriving than clearing, so early timing matters.
- Your equity moved +8.2% in the last 12 months on the Zillow value series. That, not the price you paid, is what sets your net proceeds.
- Comparable ZIP-level pricing inside Tonka Bay varies more than the citywide median suggests — check the ZIP pages below before you set a number.
Homes for sale in Tonka Bay
There are currently 10 homes listed for sale in Tonka Bay, Minnesota. The median listing price is $2.1M.
Active listings
10
Homes on market
Median list price
$2.1M
Avg. days on market
29
Days until sale
New this week
5
Newly listed
How much do homes cost in Tonka Bay by property type?
How the Tonka Bay, MN market breaks down across single-family homes, condos and townhouses. Redfin, through May 2026
| Property type | Median price | Price / sq ft | Homes sold | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $421,736 | $220/sq ft | 2 | 29 days |
| Townhouse | $760,000 | $234/sq ft | 1 | 3 days |
Who lives in Tonka Bay?
American Community Survey estimates for Tonka Bay. U.S. Census ACS, 2023
Population
1,361
Households
569
Median income
$151,563/yr
Median age
57.7 years
Owner-occupied
86.8%
Median home value
$869,900
Median gross rent
$2,299/mo
Mean commute
26.1 min
86.8% of occupied homes in Tonka Bay are owner-occupied, and the rest are rented — which is the share that decides how much of the local housing stock ever reaches the for-sale market. The Census self-reported median home value is $869,900 against Zillow's $1.13M typical value; the gap is normal — ACS asks owners what they think their home is worth, Zillow models transactions.
Which cities are near Tonka Bay, MN?
Ordered by distance from Tonka Bay, not by size. Compare Tonka Bay side by side with any of them.
Tonka Bay housing market FAQ
Is Tonka Bay a buyer's or seller's market?
Tonka Bay, MN is currently a seller's market. That read comes from 5.0 months of supply, homes going under contract in about 29 days, and sellers getting 103.9% of their asking price in the last month Redfin published (May 2026).
How much do homes cost in Tonka Bay?
The typical home in Tonka Bay, MN is worth $1.13M (Zillow Home Value Index, August 2026). The median sale price in the last month Redfin published was $421,736, about $220 per square foot.
Is Tonka Bay cheaper than the rest of Minnesota?
Tonka Bay's median sale price of $421,736 is 13% higher than the Minnesota statewide median of $372,300, and 3% above the U.S. median of $410,700. Both figures are for the same period.
How long do homes take to sell in Tonka Bay?
Homes in Tonka Bay, MN spent a median of 29 days on market before going under contract, versus 25 days statewide. That is a normal pace: enough time to see a home twice, not enough to wait a month. (Redfin, through May 2026.)
What income do you need to buy a home in Tonka Bay?
At the current 30-year fixed rate of 7.03%, 20% down on a $1.13M home is about $6,032 a month in principal and interest. Lenders typically want that under 28% of gross income, which works out to roughly $258,530 a year before taxes, insurance, HOA dues or mortgage insurance. The local median household income is $151,563.
Are home prices rising in Tonka Bay?
The typical home value in Tonka Bay, MN rose 8.2% over the last 12 months, from $1.04M to $1.13M (Zillow, August 2026). This is the live series — it refreshes monthly.
What are the cheapest ZIP codes in Tonka Bay?
Tonka Bay ZIP-level sale prices are not all published for the same period, so ranking them would compare different months. The ZIP pages listed on this page show what we hold for each one individually.
Is now a good time to buy in Tonka Bay?
That depends on your timeline, not on a headline. What the data says today: Tonka Bay, MN is a seller's market with 5.0 months of supply, the 30-year fixed rate is 7.03%. Properties Incorporated publishes the data; it does not give financial advice.
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